Israel’s Pre-emptive Window Re Iran Has (Precipitously) Closed: Professor Louis Rene Beres Expounds. Commentary By Adina Kutnicki

For well over a decade there has been no other contact (in the entire world) whose assessment was more valued, regarding Iran’s WMD program, than Professor Louis Rene Beres. So much so, he is given all due credit and respect at the ‘About’ tab – adinakutnicki.com/about/.

As such, his strategic nuclear assessments have been front and center at this blog. They must be given all due deliberation. The following, at Oxford U’s Press, highlighted the legal basis for pre-emption. Take note of its date, November 15, 2012, almost 5 months ago. Meaning, while Jerusalem wasted precious nation-saving time, hitching Israel’s completely lawful, anticipatory self defense to Washington’s dictates, the option of pre-emption has evaporated. This VERY short window, a mere 5 months ago, is no longer open –  adinakutnicki.com/2012/11/15/irans-wmd-genocidal-project-oxford-university-press-highlights-professor-louis-rene-beres-my-mentor-the-legal-basis-for-pre-emption-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/and every week lost is Iran’s gain, as its genocidal regime brings them to the “finish line”.

Catch your breath and read on…back in September 2012 a similar warning was blared from these pages, courtesy of Professor Louis Rene Beres…how many dead horses does one blog have to beat, figuratively-speaking – adinakutnicki.com/2012/09/06/professor-louis-beres-his-non-paralleled-wisdom-re-nuclear-warfare-doctrine-addendum-to-two-ways-israel-can-deter-a-nuclear-iran-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/. 

In this regard, Ariel Sharon, Israel’s ex PM, received this report from Project Daniel, and Professor Louis Rene Beres was its Chair. It was dated January 16, 2003. (www.acpr.org.il/ENGLISH-NATIV/03-issue/daniel-3.htm) Its commentary is linked herein – adinakutnicki.com/2012/08/16/two-ways-israel-can-deter-a-nuclear-iran-by-professor-louis-beres-my-mentor-decision-time-is-imminent/. So when reading the latest op-ed at Israel National News, bear in mind Prof Beres’s 2003 report to PM Sharon. But do take the time to read his updated nuclear strategic assessment re Project Daniel – http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/Articles/07spring/beres.pdf …heady material! Please place his name in their search engine and his articles will pop up, or use this link http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/publication-search-results.cfm?submit=Search&criteria=professor+louis+rene+beres.

‘Op-Ed: Israel’s Increasingly Complex Nuclear Imperatives, Pt I’ – Israel National News, April 2, 2013

Though the logic of deterrence has always rested upon an assumption of rationality, history reveals the persistent fragility of any such understanding.

Prof. Louis René Beres

Over these many years, beginning at Princeton in the late 1960s, I have examined core bases of Israeli nuclear deterrence. Recently, in consequence of the still-growing threat of Iranian nuclearization, increasing attention has been directed toward pertinent issues of enemy rationality. With such issues in mind, this essay will seek to explain (1) the likely impact of enemy “irrationality” on Israel’s deterrence posture; and (2) the vital differences between prospective Iranian irrationality, and genuine enemy “madness.”

For states in world politics, at least according to the generally unchallenged conventional wisdom, successful strategies of deterrence must correctly assume enemy rationality. In the absence of such rationality – that is, in those relatively rare or residual circumstances where an enemy country might rank order certain values or preferences more highly than “staying alive” as a nation – deterrence could simply not work. Moreover, in those potentially much more serious situations involving nuclear deterrence, the direct consequences of any such failure could be stark, catastrophic, and even unprecedented.

Significantly, at least in world politics, irrationality is never the same as “madness.” To wit, an irrational enemy leadership could still maintain a distinct and identifiable hierarchy of preferences, but one in which national survival would not necessarily rank at the top. In more technical terms, strategic analysts would say here that these irrational state actors still maintain an order of preferences that is both “consistent” and “transitive.”

A “mad” leadership, on the other hand, would have no discernible order of preferences. Its actions, for the most part, would be random and unpredictable. It goes without saying that facing a “mad” adversary in world politics is “worse” than facing a “merely” irrationaladversary. Expressed in somewhat different terms, although it might still be possible and purposeful to try to deter an irrational enemy, there would be little point to seeking deterrence against a plainly “mad” one.

“Do you know what it means to find yourselves face to face with a madman,” asks playwright Luigi Pirandello’s Henry IV. “Madmen, lucky folk, construct without logic, or rather with a logic that flies like a feather.”

Credo quia absurdum. “I believe because it is absurd.” What is true for individuals is sometimes also true for states.

In the often-unpredictable theatre of modern world politics, a drama that so often bristles with apparent meaninglessness, decisions that rest upon ordinary logic may quickly crumble before madness. Here, dangers can reach even the most utterly portentous level. This is the aptly-dreaded point of convergence, when madness and nuclear weapons capability would coincide, fuse, or otherwise come together.

Enter Israel and Iran. Soon, because not a single responsible member of the “international community” has ever demonstrated a determinable willingness to undertake appropriately preemptive action (“anticipatory self-defense,” in the formal language of law), the Jewish State may have to face an expressly genocidal Iranian nuclear adversary. Although improbable, a potentially “suicidal” enemy state in Iran, one animated by graphically precise visions of a Shiite apocalypse, cannot be wished away, or, capriciously, dismissed out of hand.

Iran’s current leadership, and possibly even a successor “reformist” government in Tehran, could, at some point, choose to value Israel’s physical destruction more highly than even its own physical survival. Should this happen, the “play” would almost certainly end badly for all “actors.” In recognizably theatrical terms, the “director’s” command would be both unambiguous and immobilizing.

Exeunt omnes!

Nonetheless, despite U.S. President Barack Obama’s disingenuous hope for “a world free of nuclear weapons,” Israel’s ultimate source of national security must inevitably lie in sustained nuclear deterrence. Although still implicit or ambiguous, and not yet open, or disclosed, this Israeli “bomb in the basement” could readily “crumble before madness.” In certain easily-imaginable instances, circumstances involving enemy “madness,” the results of failed Israeli retaliatory threats could ultimately be existential.

Though the logic of deterrence has always rested upon an assumption of rationality, history reveals the persistent fragility of any such understanding. We already know all too well that nations can sometimes behave in ways that are consciously, or even conspicuously, self-destructive.

Sometimes, mirroring the infrequent but decisively unpredictable behavior of individual human beings, national leaders can choose to assign the very highest value to certain preferences other than collective self-preservation. In operatic metaphor, this could reveal a Gotterdammerung (“Twilight of the Gods”) scenario.

For the moment, no single Arab or Iranian adversary of Israel would appear to be authentically irrational or mad. Harsh enemy rhetoric notwithstanding, no current Israeli adversary appears ready to launch a major first-strike against Israel using weapons of mass destruction, with the expectation that it would thereby elicit a devastating reprisal. Of course, miscalculations and errors in information could still lead a perfectly rational enemy state to strike first, but this decision, by definition, would not be the outcome of irrationality or madness.

In strategic thinking, judgments of rationality and irrationality are always based upon prior intent.

Certain enemy states, most likely Iran, could one day decide that excising the “Jewish cancer” or the “enemies of Allah,” from the Middle East would somehow be worth even the most palpably staggering costs. In principle, at least, this particular genocidal prospect could be avoided by Israel’s adoption of pertinent “hard target” preemptions. Increasingly, however, any such once-reasonable expressions of anticipatory self-defense are now difficult or impossible to imagine. Operationally, in essence, a successful preemption is now almost certainly infeasible.

Now, most or all critical Iranian nuclear assets have likely been deeply hardened, widely dispersed, and substantially multiplied. For Israel, expectedly, there would also be considerable political costs to any preemption. To be sure, a preemptive attack, even one that could become an operational failure, would elicit overwhelming public and diplomatic condemnation.

It is plausible that undertaking certain alternative forms of preemption, including assassination of nuclear scientists, and/or cyber defense/cyber-warfare, could (still) be purposeful, but it is unlikely that any such alternatives could permanently obviate traditionally more expedient resorts to military force. (to be continued).

LOUIS RENÉ BERES is Professor of Political Science and International Law at PurdueUniversity. Educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971), he is the author of ten books and several hundred published articles dealing with Israeli security matters, including APOCALYPSE: NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE IN WORLD POLITICS (University of Chicago Press, 1980), and SECURITY OR ARMAGEDDON: ISRAEL’S NUCLEAR STRATEGY(Heath/Lexington Books, 1986). Professor Beres served as Chair of Project Daniel, a private effort (2003) to counsel former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on existential nuclear threats to Israel. In March 2013, Dr. Beres presented another major Working Paper to the annual Herzliya Conference on Israeli strategy. Professor Beres was born inZürichSwitzerland, on August 31, 1945.

www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/13075#.UVwV8Rz-Fn0

Part’s 2 & 3 herein –  www.israelnationalnews.com/Controls/SendFriend.ashx?print=1&type=1&item=13093

Learning from a master should allow one to think more clearly, at least one hopes so. This is why the following was written on December 28, 2012, re PM Netanyahu’s cartoonish “red line” – adinakutnicki.com/2012/12/28/where-has-netanyahus-red-line-gone-barack-hussein-obamas-promises-too-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/…with the full understanding that it was vanishing, to the point of no return.

Due to all of the above, by the start of the 2013 it was obvious that PM Netanyahu trampled on his own “red line.” No one is suggesting, least of all this investigative journalist, that this is what he intended. But in matters of grave (quite possibly existential) import, good intentions are as viable as changing minds. Worthless.

Therefore, it is with great sadness, trepidation and complete outrage that Israelis (and others) await the grim news – Jerusalem will “learn” to “contain” Iran! Indeed, Israel’s “bombs in the basement” will have to surface. And this is a direct result of western abdication, as well as Israel’s lack of statesmanship. Cause and effect.

MADNESS….שגעון !!
 

The Poisonous Fruits Of Appeasement, Iran Crosses The “RED LINE”…Commentary By Adina Kutnicki

Let’s be inordinately clear – this blog is not suggesting that Israel’s leaders (heaven forbid) wanted Iran’s Hitlerite regime to cross the “red line” ; you know, the one referred to at the UN, as PM Netanyahu held up a somewhat cartoonish graph, depicting its red point of no return. 

NEVERTHELESS, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – www.physicsclassroom.com/Class/newtlaws/u2l4a.cfm and this is certainly the case in the high stake “art” of geo-politics, even though the above refers to scientific principles, derived from Newton’s Third Law of Motion. Now, in a million years, can never lay claim to scientific prowess (will leave this domain in the highly capable hands of my engineering sons, as well an off the charts, brilliant daughter-in-law), but can certainly stake an expertise in geo-political acumen, intuiting actions which evoke equal and opposite reactions.

The most pressing issue, without exaggeration, an existential one, facing Israel (and by extension the west) revolves around Iran, and its quest to gain the ultimate weapons of mass destruction. Therefore, a “shadow war” has been waged between Israel & Iran (others as well) for well over a decade, and there has been some tangible “knock-on” effects, resulting in some breathing room. Buying for time.

Specifically, Israel’s special forces, Sayeret Matkal, have always been in the forefront of things/people going boom, as related to Iran’s project of death – adinakutnicki.com/2013/01/28/israels-special-forces-sayeret-matkal-take-the-lead-fordow-goes-boom-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/. Kudos.

In fact, tens of Iranian Generals & nuclear scientists have already met their Allah, as part of Israel’s “shadow war” – https://adinakutnicki.com/2013/02/17/iranian-generals-proxy-convoys-too-going-boom-whats-going-on-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/

A blessing on their heads – NOT the “dearly” departed! Nonetheless, the heretofore “red line” is no longer viable, even if Jerusalem and Washington opine otherwise. And this assessment is based on more than the following analysis, but it certainly seals the deal.

‘REVEALED! EVIDENCE IRAN CROSSED NUCLEAR ‘RED LINE’

‘Source reveals details about enriched uranium, plutonium stockpiles’

Published: March 21, 2013

Reza Kahlili

Plutonium

Iranian scientists are working on nuclear warheads – and trying to perfect them – at an underground site unknown to the West, according to a high-ranking intelligence officer of the Islamic regime.

The officer, who has been assigned to the Ministry of Defense, not only provided the coordinates to this vast site but also details of its operation.

The site, approximately 14 miles long and 7.5 miles wide, consists of two facilities built deep into a mountain along with a missile facility that is surrounded by barbed wire, 45 security towers and several security posts.

The new secret nuclear site, named Quds (Jerusalem), is almost 15 miles from another site, previously secret but exposed in 2009, the Fordow nuclear facility. The power to this site comes from the same source as Fordow – the Shahid Rajaei power plant – with high power towers surrounding the site.

Construction of the site started about the same time as Fordow, and in the second half of 2010 all industrial tests were completed. The site became 60 percent operational in 2011.

Gen. Ahmad Vahid Datjerdi, who works in the supreme leader’s office to protect the regime’s information and counterintelligence, manages the site. His deputy, Hojatolislam Ramezani, was appointed to the protection of intelligence at the Defense Ministry after several leaks about the country’s nuclear operations.

Quds, built about 375 feet under the mountain and accessible by two large entrances reinforced with concrete, has 12 emergency exit tunnels and spreads around the mountain.

The site has a capacity of 8,000 centrifuges and currently has three operational chambers with 19 cascades of 170 to 174 centrifuges enriching uranium. As of three months ago, the source said, there were 76 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium stock at the site and 48 kilograms of over 40 percent enriched uranium.

Though the regime has long succeeded in enriching uranium to 20 percent, which is 80 percent of the way to weapons grade, enriching to over 20 percent would be a clear sign of an intention of building a nuclear bomb.

One chamber is specifically allocated to laser enrichment research and development, and Iranian scientists have seen great progress, the source said.

The most significant information provided by the source is that the regime has succeeded in not only enriching to weapons grade but has converted the highly enriched uranium into metal.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 Image, Quds secret nuclear facility

Moreover, the source said, successfully using the metal in making a neutron reflector indicates the final stages for a nuclear weapons design that would be a two-stage, more sophisticated and much more powerful nuclear bomb.

Regime scientists are also working on a plutonium bomb as a second path to becoming nuclear-armed, the source said, and they have at this site 24 kilograms of plutonium, which is sufficient for several atomic bombs.

The scientists are at the last stage of putting together a bomb warhead, he said, and the scientists in their design for a plutonium bomb are using polonium and beryllium, which would serve as the trigger and the tamper, respectively, for the bomb.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 Image, Close up of the two entrances into the Quds nuclear facility

Iranian scientists, aided by North Koreans, are also working on new ways to have more miniaturized and more powerful atomic bombs, he said.

Adjacent to the Quds facility is another facility dubbed “Martyr Mughniyah” after the Lebanese terrorist Imad Mughniyah, the source said. Personnel at this site work on missiles and warheads.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, Imad Mughniyah missile and warhead facility

The regime is building its Shahab 3 ballistic missiles there using compressed composite carbon material, which originated at an American company, he said. The company manufactures advanced composite materials and structural parts. Iran purchased the carbon material through an intermediary in Turkey, the source said. The material makes it possible to have a longer missile range with larger warheads.

The regime is working on 17 Shahab 3 missiles in preparation of arming them with nuclear warheads, the source said. The operational and technical aspect of the delivery system is 80 percent completed, he said

The regime, aided by North Korea, is also working on neutron warheads that could be used as super EMP weapons for electromagnetic pulse attacks.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, The road connecting both Quds nuclear facility to Imad Mughniyah missile and warhead facility

Overhead images clearly show this site has over 380 missile depots and launching pads, facilities that can house large ballistic missiles, most likely Shahab 3 and possibly North Korean Taepodong II (ICBMs). The source added that this missile site is the center of the regime’s defensive and offensive strategies and supports other missile sites: the Imam Ali near the city of Khoram Abad in the Lorestan province and the one in Tabriz in the province of East Azarbaijan – to be used in any attack on Israeli and U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

This facility provides the missiles for Hezbollah, the source said, and, with the help of North Koreans, is mass producing a new generation of napalm bombs to be shipped to the terrorist group while at the same time working on white phosphorus bombs to be used for terrorist acts.

The images also show a military airfield for the sole use of officers at this facility.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, the vast missile site

The source noted that for this calendar year, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has allocated $22 billion toward the country’s nuclear bomb and missile programs, funded by entities under the control of the supreme leader.

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, an expert on nuclear strategy and weapons who served on several strategic congressional commissions and in the CIA, reviewed the imagery and human intelligence (HUMINT) and called for a congressional hearing.

“The newly discovered underground complex looks like the kind of enormous complexes built by the U.S.S.R. during the Cold War and by Russia today,” Pry said. “Heavily hardened and fortified and supplied with huge amounts of electric power, by what appear to be 765-kilovolt electric power lines, the imagery suggests a top-priority military site. Nuclear-weapons programs consume vast amounts of electricity.”

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, missile depots

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, a close up shot of missile depots

The location of the site amid an Iranian missile armory, protected by a vast array of defensive and offensive missiles, is consistent with the HUMINT reporting that the site is for the final stages of nuclear weapons development, he said, and that the complex appears to be the most heavily protected site in Iran.

“The HUMNINT reporting claims the complex is for both the final stages of uranium enrichment – indeed, that Iran has crossed the ‘red line’ and is converting uranium hexafluoride gas into weapons-grade metal – and for actual bomb fabrication,” Pry said. “And the source gets sophisticated engineering details of nuclear weapons design right, even though the source is allegedly a non-expert.

“The source claims Iran now has all the materials for building nuclear weapons, such as weapons-grade uranium, plutonium as well as polonium and beryllium,” he said. “One can infer from the descriptions some design characteristics of parts for making implosion plutonium weapons and two-stage atomic weapons. The latter is a design far more sophisticated than the Hiroshima bomb that could have a much higher yield and possibly produce an explosion 50 times greater than Hiroshima,” according to Dr. Pry.

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, missile silos, the size suggests large ballistic missiles such as Shahab 3 or the North Korean Taepodong II (ICBMs)

Fritz Ermarth, who served in the CIA and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, reviewed the imagery. “There is much work to be done by imagery analysts on the photos Reza (Kahlili) has produced,” he said. “For example, is spoil from the tunneling visible? Does it tell us how extensive the tunneling is? But taken as a package, this imagery strongly suggests that Iran is working on what we used to call an ‘objective force.’ That is the objective of a deployed force of nuclear weapons on mobile missiles, normally based in deep underground sites for survivability against even nuclear attack, capable of rapid deployment. … They do suggest that Iran is working the problem of becoming a nuclear weapons power in a serious way, not just playing around for a few nukes on the shelf.”

GoogleEarth 12-2012 image, mobile missile launchers spread out throughout the mountainous terrain

Ambassador Henry Cooper, the former director of the Strategic Defense Initiative and chief negotiator on nuclear and space treaties with the Soviet Union, said, “Iran’s apparent interest and investments in underground systems are clearly coupled with its programs to develop and potentially employ weapons of mass destruction in the face of armaments that may be deployed against them, whether by Israel (‘the little Satan’) or the United States (‘the Great Satan’). Most notable is the fact that Iran has already demonstrated its ability to launch satellites into low earth orbit. When they also gain confidence in their nuclear weapons, they can then use those launchers to place nuclear weapons in earth orbit and detonate them over wherever they wish, creating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that could level its strategic playing field with all of Western civilization. This is perhaps their ultimate asymmetric weapon. Far-fetched? I wouldn’t bet (against) it.”

In an annual report to Congress Tuesday, U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper stated that Iran could not produce weapons-grade uranium without being detected. President Obama, in an interview last week with Israel’s channel 2 TV, said Iran is still “over a year or so” away from building a nuclear weapon.

However, the International Atomic Energy Agency in its Feb, 21 report stated that the Islamic regime has yet to provide access to several suspected sites, including its Parchin military facility, which is suspected of carrying out tests on nuclear bomb components.

http://www.wnd.com/2013/03/revealed-evidence-iran-crossed-nuclear-red-line/#cbcvScDClSsqAeaT.99

Had the following, by Professor Louis Rene Beres, been heeded (www.acpr.org.il/ENGLISH-NATIV/03-issue/daniel-3.htm) – adinakutnicki.com/2012/11/15/irans-wmd-genocidal-project-oxford-university-press-highlights-professor-louis-rene-beres-my-mentor-the-legal-basis-for-pre-emption-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/  we would not be where we are – facing the ultimate weapons of destruction from a genocidal regime, Allah-bent on wiping Israel/Jews off the face of the earth. Americans and other westerners alike.

Pay no mind to the blatherings, emanating from Washington & Jerusalem. The jig – the “impenetrable” “red line” – is up!

UPDATE: 

‘Obama, Netanyahu grant Iran another three months’ grace’

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 22, 2013

“Iran red line disappears under the red carpet”……www.debka.com/article/22847/Obama-Netanyahu-grant-Iran-another-three-months%E2%80%99-grace….and this latest “news” ties into the following assessment – adinakutnicki.com/2013/03/21/israels-leadership-unfit-to-lead-capitulating-to-hamas-the-one-regardless-of-the-spin-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/

1 + 1…..