ONE needn’t be a military genius, nor a clandestine operative, to understand certain underpinnings: wherever leftist group-think embeds itself (within the upper echelons), strategic-thinking is no longer a priori. In fact, under said paradigm shift, strategic calculi no longer rate as a focal point. They are generally tossed aside for immediate action plans, as intrinsic as they are. And the rest is, as is said, history.
NOW, to understand what this means in national (practical life and death) terms, one also has to appreciate the value of strategic-thinking. Its essence is not akin to a “hit and run” operation (that’s the job description for stealthy tacticians, almost cat-like…have known more than a few who operated as such…), but one which develops and evolves over time. Its inherent value lies within the operational agent’s ability to piece together rapidly moving and seemingly disparate pieces within any regional or global theater. This job descriptor involves explicit skill-sets, one which combines prized attributes, especially critical thinking – aka logical and analytical. Deductive and inductive reasoning top the list. However, a highly well-rounded understanding of history, specific cultures/religious underpinnings, current events – and a combination thereof – are keenly requisite. All of these skills, at their base, are necessary ingredients to be able to outmaneuver any enemy. Inherently, the top political and military echelons must be able to rely upon the deeply intrinsic linkages found through said strategic moving parts, involving fast-paced regional and global dynamics.
PRE OSLO, covering Israel’s strategic (overarching) picture went from being an asset – which is ABSOLUTELY critical – to being chucked out the window. Instead, the Mossad (yes, they “wag the dog” of the rest of Israel’s intelligence agencies) now relies upon “tacticians” to get the job done. Incredibly dangerous and short-sighted. How did this happen? what are the immediate consequences? and what does this (mistaken) calculus portend?
WITH the infection of the Oslo “Peace” Death Accords into the political and diplo arena in 1993 (whereby powerful leftists in Israel & America bestowed statesman-like status upon Arafat, the godfather of suicide terrorism), it is no wonder that Israel’s attendant security agencies, with Mossad as its headliner, became duly compromised.
IT took a decade, to be exact, before a volte-face policy shift took place under Meir Dagan, Mossad’s previous Director. While known for putting together many daring feats (many more are surely buried, as they should be), it is also the case that he tilts (politically) left.
IN this regard, like night follows day, closing down operational desks – which specialized in incisive strategic research of international events – effectively shut down any associated “taint” which smacked of criticizing Islamists and their leftist champions. By doing so, it allowed the Mossad (הַמוֹסָד) to distance itself from any “moral” judgments which naturally surface to the fore, when cultural differences are deeply examined. It is these otherwise underlying directional and operational markers which cause grave angst among cultural relativists. Resultant, timely shifting dynamics are missed, therefore, said agencies are incapable of warning the leadership of encroaching dangers. Shifting winds are no longer caught. In other words, though malignant intent is not a factor, the fact of the matter is that leftist prisms are an outgrowth of said leadership. Indeed, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
When Israeli troops entered Gaza in July, 2014, they were armed with superb tactical intelligence as well as superior weaponry and training. The soldiers on the ground were supplied at every level with astonishing detail which saved lives.
But thanks to the a radical shift in Israel’s intelligence focus, initiated 10 years ago and followed through since, those calling the shots in the IDF’s war on Hamas were short of a deeper picture and insights into the enemy’s mindset and guiding motives, data that transcends tactical knowledge
This revision of Israel’s operational intelligence orientation began in 2003 under Meir Dagan, with the approval of the late prime minister Ariel Sharon. It refocused the work of Israel’s clandestine agencies on collecting tactical intelligence and giving up on digging for strategic data on the dynamics of the region and world and their key players. This revolution affected the short and long term operations of of Israel’s external and internal security and counterterrorism arms, the Mossad and Shin Bet, as well as military intelligence AMAN.
The Mossad shut down stations world wide, sacking or sidelining agents who disputed the Dagan overhaul.. The desks specializing in the strategic research of international events were streamlined out of the organization. The new entity began to resemble the US Central Intelligence Agency’s Special Operations Division (SAD), a covert paramilitary unit that focuses on gathering tactical intelligence for the use of operatives serving on foreign soil, especially in the Mid East….
SIGNIFICANTLY, those of us who operate in the strategic-analysis realm are not shocked by the outcome described above. Heck, it would have been a surprise had they got it right! Agreed, pinpointed strikes take care of immediate and impending threats. NO doubt. Consequently, few champion their liquidation as heartily as this American-Israeli. However, this does not obviate the other “messiness” delineated above; one which “offends” leftist and Islamist-driven sensibilities. Moreover, if ones post Mossad career goals include currying favor from leftist heavy hitters, the strategic-analysis arena is fraught with land-mines. Don’t believe this was not an influence on purging this and that operational desk!
SO, just like with Mossad’s previous Director Meir Dagan, Tamir Pardo (current Director) is similarly inclined.
READERS, please connect the leftist-driven, political/business dots from the above link…leading us from there to here!
The What/The Outcome:
WITH ISIS decapitating scores all across the region, one would believe that Israel’s vaunted Mossad (and auxiliary security agencies) would have anticipated their march into Israel. Consequentially, had they connected the dots, they would have warned Israel’s leaders of their infiltration, stopping them in their deadly tracks. Yet, if one assumed as much, one would be proven wrong. It wasn’t pieced together, at least until AFTER the fact! Ditto…Hamas’s “strategic” calculus was TOTALLY lost on Israel’s war-planners, and they were left with gaping holes in the strategic analysis domain.
As the Islamic State (formerly ISIS) continues its bloody conquest of Iraq and Syria and begins invading Lebanon, all in the name of establishing a global Sunni Muslim caliphate system, signs of support for the extremist are being seen among Israel’s Arab citizens.Channel 10 exposed on Sunday that in recent months black ISIS flags have been commonly seen in Arab-Israeli towns in northern and coastal Israel, notably in the cities of Nazareth and Akko.The flags have been seen flying among both Muslim and Christian Arab citizens of Israel, an ironic move given that ISIS in Iraq has emptied cities of their Christian populations by issuing them an ultimatum either to convert to Islam, pay non-Muslim jhizya taxes – or die.In response to the widespread photos of ISIS flags flying in Nazareth, Ali Salem, mayor of the city, claimed “there are no things like that in Nazareth, and whoever sends (photos) is a deceiver and liar.”The report also exposed a wide-reaching trend on Facebook, in which Arab-Israeli youths take pictures of themselves bearing ISIS flags, sometimes wearing the flags draped around their shoulders.
IN no way incidental, but as a DIRECT consequence thereof – re the above clearly defined lack of strategic calculi – the following is more than enough (dastardly) proof:
Community leaders of 40,000 dwellers of the dozens of kibbutzim, moshavim and small towns adjoining the Gaza Strip spoke out Monday, Aug 25: “It is no longer possible to hide what is going on and the country must hear the truth,” they said: “The populated front line facing the Gaza Strip is no more.” Some bluntly blamed this fiasco on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and their management of the operation against Hamas.
The collapse of the Israeli line outside Gaza is analogous in strategic terms to the fall of the Bar Lev line 41 years ago which permitted the Egyptian artillery and tank assault across the Suez Canal, some veteran reservists said.
Others pointed out that, whereas the IDF should have carved out a sterile security zone inside the Gaza Strip, Hamas had managed to depopulate a strip of territory on the Israeli side of the border by relentless cross-border short-range rockets and mortar fire, and was now dictating events in southern Israel.
On the 50th day of Operation Defense Edge, people living in the south were outspokenly critical of Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and his deputy, Maj. Gen. Gadi Eisenkott, in contrast to the early days of the operation. They are now blamed for failing to present the security cabinet with “creative military solutions” for combating Hamas tactics.
SIGNIFICANTLY, Israel, for all its techno-prowess (a behemoth, by any global yardstick), has surrendered the strategic initiative to Hamas, and it will eventually do the same with ISIS, if Pardo and Co. do not recognize their grave miscalculations. Post haste. As a result, Hamas is running circles around Israel’s top political leaders and war-planners.
IN the main, Islamic enemies understand Israel’s echelon on a base strategic level, whereas the opposite isn’t the case. Essentially, Hamas has no qualms about making “value” judgments, whereas Israel’s security heads have decided to chuck strategy for quick-fire tactics. This is precisely why KEY regional assessments were TOTALLY missed by Israel’s spy agencies. After all, “tactics”, per se, have little to do with UNDERLYING regional and global events, plus their burgeoning alliances.
YES, there is absolutely no doubt that the Mossad, during the years between 2003 to date, have accomplished some outstanding targeted hits. Their agents are the best of the best.
ADMITTEDLY, this investigative journalist is not arrogant enough to tell Israel’s clandestine agencies how to tactically eliminate terrorists. This is their domain. However, this site stands by the strategic analysis misfiring(s) detailed above, and then some. That’s just the way it is. Whoever doesn’t like it, well…